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The path ahead for the global economy

026th June 201820th December 2018
By Oakwood Mortgage ServicesIn General

Much has happened to keep us busy in 2018 so far but there’s plenty to come in the second half of the year in terms of the political and economic events that could shape the future direction of markets and your investments.

US

The big event at the end of the 2017 was the passing of Donald Trump’s tax reforms, including big tax cuts for companies and a drop in income tax which will benefit many American families. However, most won’t feel the affect until they file their taxes in April 2019.

A measure of Trump’s popularity will be the US midterm elections in November, which historically haven’t always gone well for the incumbent president’s party. The whole House of Representatives, a third of the Senate and most governorships will be at stake, along with hundreds of state legislative seats and local offices around the country.

Latin America

Donald Trump has upset many Mexicans with his plans for a wall separating the country from the US. Relations between the two neighbours are likely to figure prominently in the Mexican presidential election on 1 July. The favourite to win is the former mayor of Mexico City, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who is leader of the left-wing National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). He has been very vocal about Trump’s policy toward Mexico. Brazil has had a tough few years. President Dilma Rousseff was impeached in 2016 after allegations of manipulating the government’s budget, while former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was convicted of money laundering last year. However, Lula, as he is more commonly known, is among those fighting for re-election in this October’s vote.

UK

The second-half of 2018 in the UK should be all about Brexit in the run up to our scheduled departure from the EU on 29 March 2019. Having reached an agreement on the so-called ‘divorce bill’ at the end of last year, the next stage of negotiations is about the UK’s relationship with our European neighbours going forward. With so much still in the air – including future trade and rules around EU citizens living in the UK – decisions made could have an impact on investment markets, especially trading in the pound.

Asia

After China’s grand leadership reshuffle late last year, other South East Asian countries are set for a political refresh in 2018. National elections are due in Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia in the second half of this year, while Indonesia’s politicians are already on the campaign trail for elections there in 2019. The US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership – a trade agreement between 12 countries, representing some 40% of the world economy – was a big headline last year. However, while it means less reliance on the US, it could ultimately lead  to even greater influence from China, now challenging to become the world’s largest economy.

Europe

After a tough ride for Angela Merkel in the German election, and the fallout from Catalonia’s bid for independence from Spain, 2018 appears to be a more serene year for politics within the eurozone. However, with such cultural and economic diversity within the bloc, its future sustainability must not be taken for granted. On the economic front, the eurozone as a whole continues to impress in terms of growth, though the European Central Bank (ECB) remains behind the curve in terms of monetary policy – namely it has kept interest rates at 0% while other major economies are beginning to ‘hike’ or raise, theirs.

With the eurozone economic crisis of a few years back still fresh in our memories, an important milestone could be the results of stress tests of Greece’s four largest banks, due to be published by the ECB in May. This will hopefully allow time for any shortfall to be filled before Greece is due to leave its bailout programme in August.

If you’re concerned about how global events could impact your investment portfolio, please get in touch.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

The value of your investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount invested.

Freehold or leasehold: the ins and outsIt happened to him

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Oakwood Mortgage Services Ltd
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Sharon Price
Sharon Price
15:30 12 Aug 20
In these current times Stuart has assisted me with a temporary solution to my mortgage issues which went very smoothly. I will be working with Stuart again very soon to change mortgage product completely. Thank you Oak wood Mortgage Services
Ben Brown
Ben Brown
16:38 31 Jul 20
I would like to say a huge thank you to Oakwood Mortgage Services and in particular to Richard Burley who seems capable of working miracles, particularly when dealing with the complicated applications of a sportsman. Richard’s calm manner and problem solving have been brilliant over the years and allowed both Katie and I to stay relaxed and in control during stressful house buying moments, as well as helping us to navigate the the complex buy-to-let market! We owe a huge debt of gratitude to Richard and Oakwood mortgage services ahead of moving house next week, and I would highly recommend their services. In particular I would recommend them to other sports people who have previously struggled with mortgage companies based on our short contracts and the potentially volatile nature of our work. Thanks again Richard. Ben and Katie
Gwenie Ralph
Gwenie Ralph
20:57 06 Jul 20
I gave Stuart at Oakwood Mortgage services a challenge of finding me an impossible mortgage. I knew I wouldn't get exactly what I wanted, but he came up with some nice surprises. He explained everything, not pushy at all, a friendly and professional approach. Thank you
nicky Myers
nicky Myers
19:17 25 May 20
We were first time buyers and dealt with Richard around the mortgage application. He helped us understand each process, explaining everything thoroughly and came to meet us twice where he was very personal and efficient. Dave took us through the building and contents and life insurance process, again coming to meet us in person and took us through the options, step by step. Dave was very communicative and answered any questions we had.Emma was there throughout this process and on hand with any urgent queries we had and was a delight to deal with.They managed to make it all happen, even during lockdown!Highly recommend Richard, Dave, Emma and Oakwood. We are very happy in our new home!
Daniella Castro Gouveia
Daniella Castro Gouveia
11:31 19 May 20
I have worked with a number of the Oakwood team over many years and they are all excellent and totally professional at what they do. Dave came to our family home a few years ago to discuss and advise us in terms of financial insurance. He was very knowledgeable, really easy to talk to. Sometimes discussing financial things can be quite tricky to understand, but I felt at complete ease with Dave. I would highly recommend speaking to him if you need insurance or even need a mortgage as he covers both areas. Thanks for all your support Dave. It's always good to have someone who has your back!
Richard Craven
Richard Craven
19:12 03 May 19
Stuart was excellent, helped me obtain a mortgage quickly and painlessly with minimal effort and was always ready to promptly answer any questions I had.
Andrew South
Andrew South
17:50 26 Mar 19
Stuart was very profession and friendly, He was there to help when something went wrong.Highly recommend!!
Ian L
Ian L
13:45 03 Jan 19
When we started looking for a house, we contacted Stuart based on a work colleague's recommendation. Having not bought a house in the UK before, we had a lot of questions.Stuart guided us through the process and was always available to answers questions and provide advice that was easy to understand.We had a protracted period between initial contact and purchase, in this time Stuart was patient, professional and provided us with a high level of confidence that we were in capable hands.A huge thank you to Stuart and the staff at Oakwood, we would not hesitate to recommend them.Ian and Yoosun
Claire Vince
Claire Vince
22:13 21 Dec 18
Great service. Paul talked us through everything really clearly and made the whole process very smooth and straightforward. We have recommended Oakwood to friends as a result.
Christopher Relph
Christopher Relph
23:27 29 Aug 18
The team is very friendly, professional and knowledgeable on their given subject. My situation was rather unusual and my options were very limited, if i had tried on my own i wouldn't have found the best deal for me. The information provided to me was well presented and insightful, if anything was unclear they made sure that i understood things fully. In the end they found the best deal out there that ticked all the boxes i needed and went above and beyond. To make sure i wasn't put into a position i couldn't afford to be in Stuart would go to an agent and tell them when things weren't possible, even when they were insistent on getting a deal, Stuart had my back in it!I can't recommend them enough, and will be returning to them down the line myself!
Sam Eccles
Sam Eccles
15:35 24 Jul 18
Top notch service. Friendly, prompt and accessible no matter where you are based (I'm in the Highlands). Much better service than that experienced by local face-to-face advisers with a large portfolio of companies that ensure you can get the mortgage to suit your needs. Have happily referred to others in less than usual circumstances, all of whom have come away delighted
Michelle Ames
Michelle Ames
18:20 07 Jul 18
Highly recommend. We were first time buyers and Stuart made the process simple and efficient. We found our property and made an offer on the spot, but the agents needed to speak to Stuart before stopping further viewings, so he dropped everything whilst at a conference and the rest is history. Buying a house is an emotional time, so having the mortgage element handled by a professional, yet down to earth person like Stuart was invaluable to us. Thanks Stuart.
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